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Saturday, October 13, 2007

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Gore said in An Inconvenient Truth that there is no dissent from scientists that mankind is causing global warming. None. If I remember correctly, Gore said there are no scientific studies refuting human-caused warming. Did Gore lie? Is Cockburn cracked? Who's telling the truth?

I think this is what Gore said that you're citing:

There was a massive study of every scientific article in a peer reviewed article written on global warming in the last ten years. They took a big sample of 10 percent, 928 articles. And you know the number of those that disagreed with the scientific consensus that we're causing global warming and that is a serious problem out of the 928: Zero.

So Gore was talking only about a sample of peer-reviewed articles, but not ruling out all dissent.

Though I can't vouch for Gore's facts, Cockburn is most definitely cracked (on this topic). Setting aside his extraordinary invective, there's his sourcing: I'm not sure if you've seen it here before, but Cockburn's main source for his skepticism is Dr. Martin "the explosion expert" Hertzberg, a combustion scientist with three years of Navy meteorology experience who Cockburn met on a cruise. And Cockburn's primary citation from Hertzberg was a talk Hertzberg gave at a Colorado brew pub. I know it beggars belief, but I swear I'm not making this up.

That would most likely be a reference to the study by Naomi Oreskes. He's not quite picture perfect right.

"The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position."

But he is correct that there were no disagreements on the consensus.

Cockburn is way off base.

Scruggs: Nice catch--thanks for the link(s). Actually Gore's summary appears to be more accurate than I thought it would be.

What I'd like to know is, where is this coming from? Cockburn doesn't appear to be actually insane. He must be aware as a leftist that there is a strong movement supported by large corporations to discredit anthropogenic global warming and that should make him suspicious. His co-editor is Jeffry StClair, who isn't a global warming denialist. He must also be aware that no matter what the West might be doing in terms of spinning global warming against third-world development, there ain't gonna be no development if the ecology collapses.

It's bizarre. It's as if a section of his brain is channelling Christopher Hitchens contrarianism.

Regarding "contrarianism": in my original article on this, that's exactly what I said as well. I think your Hitchens comparison is (depressingly) apt, and though I don't think Cockburn is likely to go quite as far off the rails as Hitchens has, I do think his seemingly reflexive contrarian streak is his greatest weakness.

I admire Cockburn. But I don't agree with him on this Global Warming business. We should know to separate wheat and chaff.He is still great in almost everything except on this Global Warming.

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